Interview with economic expert Nguyen Tri Hieu (photo) on the growth prospects from now until the end of the year.
|Economic expert Nguyen Tri Hieu|
The economic growth in the first half of 2019 was 6.67%. This is considered a decent increase in the context of many difficulties. Could you please tell us your opinion on the economic growth from now until the end of the year?
I think that with the existing momentum and foundation, the economic growth in 2019 can still achieve the target of 6.8%. However, it should be noted that Vietnam's economy in the second half of 2019 will be affected by the world economy, which is affected by the US-China trade war.
Over the last weekend, the US has said it will suspend new tariffs on Chinese goods, but old taxes still hold, and the US also allows its companies to sell goods to Huawei and continue to work with Chinese partners to find solutions. There have been relatively positive signs, but no one has been able to say for sure whether the situation will be solved or not.
In that context, the global economy continues to be affected, including Vietnam’s economy. Since the beginning of the year, Vietnam's economy is still at a positive level, but it is clear that the economic growth is lower than last year, which means being affected by the global economic slowdown because the US and China are Vietnam's two largest partners in trade. I think that the economic growth target of 6.8% is achievable, but it will not be easy, but we must strive hard to overcome difficulties and challenges from global economic decline.
The EVFTA and IPA have just been signed. In your opinion, what is the impact of these agreements on Vietnam's economy in 2019? Can Vietnam's economy in 2019 benefit from these agreements?
Like the CPTPP, these agreements must get approval from EVFTA and IPA members, but they might not be approved and effective in 2019. However, psychologically, the signing of this Agreement will create excitement for businesses. But we should not be too optimistic about that, even with the CPTPP, when it has come into force, we have not yet seen the strong impact of this Agreement, even though it also created much optimism before. From the excitement to seizing the opportunity is quite a long way, so I think that the signing of the EVFTA will have no impact on economic growth in 2019.
How do you rate two growth drivers from agriculture and tourism? What are the areas that contribute significantly to economic growth from now until the end of the year?
Agriculture and tourism are two important growth drivers, however, in 2019, agriculture is heavily influenced by strict technical barriers from importing countries as well as climate change and crops. Tourism is the key to Vietnam's economy, bringing in lots of foreign currencies, which will make a great contribution to the growth of 2019, but the contribution will not be equal to the previous years due to the decline of the world economy. Thus, agriculture and tourism are two key economic sectors, but these two industries are suffering from negative impacts from the world economy and unpredictable and unusual changes of the climate.
The factor that plays an important role for economic growth from now to the end of the year is exports. This is the field to help boost growth over the years. With the CPTPP and Vietnam's integration into the world economy, Vietnam's exports will continue to help Vietnam’s economic grow. Inland, the two dynamics from the stability of the economy and domestic purchasing power increased in recent years. In the current world economic situation, in addition to boosting exports, it is necessary to boost domestic purchasing power, which is a problem that depends heavily on credit. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to promote consumer credit to boost the purchasing power of domestic consumers.
Thank you, Sir!
By T. Hien/ Kieu Oanh
Source: Customs News