Economic growth in 2018 estimated to achieve 6.58%

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According to the macroeconomic report by the Central Institute for Economic management (CIEM), it claimed that Vietnam has entered into 2018 with some exciting news, but still has many challenges. 

The workshop "Vietnam’s Economy in 2017, Prospects in 2018". Photo: H.A

The macroeconomic reports have been released by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) at the workshop, "Vietnam’s Economy in 2017, Prospects in 2018", held in the morning of 25/1.

According to CIEM, in 2017, the economy has tried new efforts to implement major policies on reforming the growth model, restructuring the economy and effectively implementing the process of international economic integration.

These efforts have become more substantive after various solutions which had a lack of depth, a lack of drastic measures, and did not significantly improve the quality of growth until 2016. The good impressions of operations and improvements of the economic institution are thanks to socio-economic achievements in 2017 that have contributed significantly to the economy. The economic growth in 2017 reached 6.81%, exceeding the forecast and exceeding the target.

The lessons from 2017 also show that it is due to maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment with significant economic institutional reform. Loosening credit can help boost business operations in the short run, but it can also push the economy back to a vicious cycle of bad debt, hinder productivity gains, and reduce operating surplus if there are adverse shocks later. In so doing, speeding up and deepening micro reform is the only option.

Forecasts show that economic growth in 2018 is estimated at 6.58%, export growth is forecast at 9.4%, trade surplus at $US 1.1 billion, and the average consumer price rate is about 3.74% compared to 2017.

According to CIEM, macroeconomic developments in 2018 could be influenced by a number of factors, such as the fluctuations in the recovery of world economic growth being more or less unstable, the reduction of liberalization of multilateral trade due to the tendency towards protectionism, the bilateral trade approach, and the trade retreat between major economies may become more complex.

Accordingly, policy priorities need to continue to focus on improving micro-economic fundamentals and reforming the economic institution system for a modern market economy.

Moreover, according to CIEM, Vietnam enters 2018 with some exciting news. The impressive socio-economic performance in 2017 has helped to consolidate confidence in institutional reform in general, and in the business environment in particular.

By Hoài Anh/Thanh Thuy